This article makes some predictions about the future of adventure programming. The problem with predicting the future is that one is more often wrong than right. Consider this quote:

Around the turn of the last century, not one of the futurists predicting our prospective lives, mentioned anything remotely connected with the computer. -John Scully, former CEO Apple.

Adventure programming is the deliberate and purposeful use of adventure activities (mostly group initiatives, ropes courses and outdoor pursuits) to change the way a person feels, thinks, and/or behaves. The type of program is not defined by its clientele, but by its primary purpose for existing and operating: whether it is most concerned with changing feelings, thinking, behavior, or mal-behavior. Although one of these may be the primary reason, the others may be secondary or tertiary motives for using adventure programming.

If changing feelings is the primary purpose of a program, then it is called adventure recreation. Participants have fun, are entertained or reenergized, and learn new outdoor skills. Taking university students on a trip to "blow off steam" before exams is an example of recreation.

If changing thinking is the primary purpose of a program, then it is called adventure education. Participants understand new concepts, enrich old concepts and learn to be aware. Taking students on a trip so they come to know how well they interact is an example of education.

If changing behavior is the primary purpose of a program, then it is called adventure development. Participants improve functional behaviors and learn to act in a positive manner. Taking a group of students on a trip so they work better as a team is an example of development.

If changing mal-behavior is the primary purpose of a program, then it is called adventure therapy. Participants reduce dysfunctional behaviors and learn not to behave in negative ways. Taking them on a trip to "repair" the way they destructively interact with one another is therapy.

TRENDS & ISSUES
Ewert and Miles have identified seven societal trends and changes in global markets that are relevant to the future of adventure programming. These can be summarized as:

1. Shift from industrial toward information and service;
2. Rapid technological advances will continue;
3. Decreased earning, morality, and compassion will ensue;
4. Increased crime, consumption, and debt will result;
5. More people will seek experiences outdoors;
6. More environments will get damaged; and
7. Litigation will still drive decision making processes.

1. Shift from industrial toward information and service. With current gains in medicine and health care people are living longer lives. The average age of the populous will proceed to increase. Relaxed attitudes toward birth control and reproduction will further accelerate the population explosion. With over five billion inhabitants, we have far surpassed our planet's carrying capacity by a factor of a thousand and the situation will get far worse before it gets better. In our time on earth, humans have evolved from hunters and gatherers through an agricultural society to the industrial revolution. Now we are well into the information age with a service orientation.

2. Rapid technological advances will continue. Scientific progress has made the information age possible. Breakthroughs in data management abound and these newly developing methods of communication and transportation will effectively continue to shrink the world. From a laptop computer, powered by a solar panel and connected to a cellular phone, one can dial up and "SLIP" into a personal access account. From there, the World Wide Web can be searched for information on everything from the newest outdoor gear to wilderness area access. Then, by sending an E-mail message, one can instantly order the equipment or request the permits. These still arrive many days later by snail-mail, but that will all change some day too.

3. Decreased earning, morality, and compassion will ensue. The instantaneous ability to store, retrieve, access, and deliver such a rapidly expanding information base, will mean that the dominant global culture moves in the direction of being more empirical, rational, utilitarian, and manipulative. As a result, global markets for goods, services, or ideas will become easy to access, yet heavy with competition for customers and resources. The developing nations will catch up to the developed nations in economic production. This will result in a split of western classes around time and money. White-collar workers will get richer and work fewer hours, thus giving them more unobligated time and disposable income for leisure. Blue-collar workers will work longer hours for less money and will have a greater need for leisure time, but have less of it.

4. Increased crime, consumption, and debt will result. People will increase their levels of debt and mortgage their futures in order to sustain their present affluence at their past levels. More people will switch careers several times within their working lifetimes in an effort to stay ahead. The appearance of more double income families (as both parents work to maintain their standard of living) and more single parent families (as the one must work to survive debt free) will translate into increasing numbers of children becoming alienated from their families. Growing intellectual, cultural, and ethical anomie (unrest) among young people will result in more drug abuse, crime, and suicide. Society will become more consumptive, dominant and manipulative and less moral, conservative, and compassionate. The need for leisure and adventure will be greater than ever.

5. More people will seek experiences outdoors. With more and more humans on the face of the planet, it stands to reason that more people will choose to go outdoors for their recreation. As more people have greater leisure time, they will spend longer periods in the outdoors. This trend will also be driven and accelerated by the large number of university outdoor recreation graduates who cannot find a job in the limited field and so must begin their own company, thus enticing more people outdoors.

6. More environments will get damaged. The increasing numbers of people going outdoors, and for longer periods of time, will place the natural environment under increasing stress and will result in greater non-recoverable damage to the resource base. In short, more people will love the outdoors to death more often. Resource managers will compensate by adding greater restrictions.

7. Litigation will still drive decision making processes. Among all of this, litigious attitudes will prevail in western cultures and lawyers will play an even more influential role in determining what people can and cannot do in the outdoors. America has more lawyers per capita than any other nation in the world. They too make their own jobs as they go.

These global growth areas will generate seven trends for adventure programming:

1. Adventure programs will continue to grow in popularity;
2. The size and number of organiza-tions will increase;
3. Program operations will be more regulated and complex;
4. Artificial adventure environments will dominate;
5. The profession will expand and diversify;
6. Programs will be brought to the learner; and
7. The profession will mature through self-examination.

1. Adventure programs will continue to grow in popularity. Some increases will be due to the need for greater leisure opportunities and others will also be necessary to address society's problems. This trend is already obvious from the increasing participants and revenues in outdoor recreation.

2. The size and number of organizations will increase. Since the origins of the first Association for Experiential Education (AEE) Conference in 1974, with only 130 individuals pre-registered, this leading organization for adventure programming has attracted over 2300 members in 20 countries a mere two decades later. AEE has spun off several other organizations with unique foci and its unique approach and intent have been copied in several nations around the world. Other outdoor organizations proliferate in North America and specialized adventure organizations are also becoming more common in other countries.

3. Program operations will be more regulated and complex. Less governmental funding, more human accidents and environmental damage all bring increasing regulation from resource managers. Concerned with their liability and visitor safety, these managers will set further policies and procedures to moderate resource use. Resource management agencies have introduced guidelines governing permit use, program licensing, and access fees. On some public lands, adventure programs must obtain permission via a lottery, be accredited by AEE or AMGA (American Mountain Guides Association), and pay a fee for the use of those lands. These measures have been implemented, in part, to cover shrinking bureaucratic support and increased problematic use of the natural resources.

4. Artificial adventure environments will dominate. To some extent this is already the case. In North America, group initiative tasks and ropes or challenge courses have all but replaced the classic outdoor pursuits with corporate clientele. A proliferation of course builders has created the Association for Challenge Course Technology (ACCT) to standardize construction and safety for thousands of American courses in use today. These numbers are expected to grow exponentially in the future, with similar patterns of growth and standardization now being seen in Australia, Canada, Britain and the rest of Europe. Shrinking natural outdoor settings, coupled with the cost and danger of transporting clients (the most dangerous part of most programs) will necessitate that alternatives be found. Some alternatives might include the already popular: climbing walls, ski slopes, kayak roll tanks, and whitewater canoe chutes. Others have yet to be invented.

5. The profession will expand and diversify. For example, AEE's Directory of Experiential Therapy and Adventure-Based Counseling Programs lists over 257 organizations that utilize adventure experiences with therapeutic intent. Within this listing, programs are identified as having applications for clients who are "youth-at-risk," adult corrections, families, psychiatric inpatient, addictions, terminally ill patients, juvenile corrections, sexual victims, sexual perpetrators, and the developmentally disabled. We can expect this same type of prescriptive diversification for other client groups such as corporations and schools.

6. Programs will be brought to the learner, rather than visa versa. With the interaction of issues of "shrinking" wilderness, accessibility, fiscal restraints, and efforts to make concepts more applicable to clients' real lives, a number of professionals have called for adventure programs to center efforts more around the learner and the "adventures" in their environment. One example of this is the growth of urban adventure programming. Urban adventure has several potential advantages over more "wilderness-based" programming, which may include greater accessibility to: a larger number of clients, clients who directly benefit from adventure, environments with cultural diversity, immediacy of human problems and solutions, availability of differing resources, continuing support systems, greater transferability to clients' future, and a wider range of learning environments and programming options.

7. The profession will mature through self-examination. By formulating ways to investigate and theorize about the processes of adventure programming, the profession will grow to be more professional. One important step toward this professionalism is the development of a unique body of knowledge. This has already been accomplished by publishing professional safety guidelines and program accreditation standards. These "evolutionary benchmarks" highlight the profession's ability to identify, document, and refine the expression of practices to practitioners and customers alike.

In addition to these trends, seven key issues will continue to prevail:

1. The environment will become even more regulated;
2. Technology will become a concern for all of us;
3. Staff will continue to be "burned out" by work;
4. Professionalism will suffer and become legislated;
5. Certification will be replaced with accreditation;
6. University preparation of leaders will fluctuate; and
7. Research will become a necessary "evil" of ours.

1. The environment will become even more regulated. As already stated, the outdoors is reeling from the actions of many untrained visitors. Their increasing numbers have directly led to degradation of natural areas, so much so that access is being restricted by resource managers. Their carelessness has led to constraints (permits and fees) on the very freedom they seek to enjoy. In 1995, the administration agencies for National Parks at Joshua Tree, California and Red Rocks, Nevada decided that only adventure programs accredited by the AMGA or AEE will be permitted to conduct rock climbing programs in these areas. Many others areas can be expected to follow suit with regard to climbing. If this same attitude infects other outdoor pursuits, this could severely influence the manner in which adventure programs conduct their services.

2. Technology will become a concern for all of us. As mentioned earlier, technology is changing quicker than people can get keep up. Note the recent advances in climbing protection and belaying devices. Are these driven by safety concerns, efficiency, litigation, or other forces? The advent of GPS and recent availability of satellite phones might mean a lawsuit could result from the lack of their use in adventure programming. What would be the result if a group was lost or someone injured without either piece of technology present? If brought on a wilderness trip, what would be their impact on naturalness, solitude, and self-sufficiency?

3. Staff will continue to be "burned out" by work. Leading outdoor experiences can be a very enriching experience, but in the same time can be extremely draining. It has been shown that the very features which often attract individuals to becoming outdoor leaders also lead to professional burnout when not properly addressed. Outdoor leaders are particularly susceptible to experience professional burnout because of their high commitment, independence, lifestyle, experience-base, and hopes and dreams. To reverse some of these negative contributions to professional burnout, outdoor leaders should consider the four interconnected qualities of: security, success, appropriate financial support, and balance.

4. Professionalism will suffer and become legislated. Three fatalities in the North Star, Challenger, and Summit Quest programs have brought further criticism to bear on adventure programs in America. Although these three Utah programs for at-risk teenagers called themselves adventure therapy, they had a history of conducting operations in a manner that most practitioners would consider outside the realm of adventure programming. Withholding food and water in order to manipulate children's behavior, operating coercively, and failing to have safety and first aid systems in place scream out to governments to regulate the adventure programming profession. If our profession cannot manage itself, others and governments will gladly do it for us.

5. Certification will be replaced with accreditation. Certification of outdoor leaders was never an effective answer to the problems of adventure programming, because it tended to examine only the so-called "hard" skills and avoided dealing with the so-called "soft" and "meta" skills. The idea that certification ensured client safety or environmental protection was also critically flawed. Even the most capable certified leader, working in a poor quality program (with old equipment, outdated educational philosophies, or unethical client treatment) can't avoid the accidents that are just waiting to happen. Leadership is just one small element of overall program quality. The accreditation of programs takes into account all the elements of program quality (one of which is instructor qualifications and competence). In the accreditation process, the program is evaluated as a whole in meeting specific operation standards. In this way, program accreditation retains the strengths of leadership certification without being bound by some of its weaknesses. It takes a systemic view of the process of adventure programming, unlike certification that divides leadership into individualized skills.

6. University preparation of leaders will fluctuate. Although certification may not be the answer, and despite a global shift toward accreditation, the preparation of leaders will always be necessary. The university and some community colleges have become the training grounds of outdoor leaders. Unfortunately, these programs tend to be much too theoretical and not practical enough for the critical demands of outdoor leadership preparation. Many courses tend to focus only on the academic and theoretical content, preferring to stay in the classroom (where supposed "real" learning takes place). Others spend a lot of time becoming competent at doing the activities in a safe and environmentally sensitive manner, but without students understanding how or why to use adventure as a catalyst for human change. A few manage to blend theory and practice, avoiding the information rich and experience poor imbalance that is all too common in ivory towers, but still don't provide the time needed to examine the depth of soft skills and meta skills necessary to bring about change. These concerns, coupled with growing financial cutbacks and course reductions in the tertiary education sector, may mean that the preparation of outdoor leaders is short lived in universities and colleges.

7. Research will become a necessary "evil" of ours. Like university programs, increasing numbers of adventure programs are being terminated due to decreasing subsidized funding. A lack of research often leaves these programs "on the fringe" and unable to claim their effectiveness when seriously challenged. More research and evaluation would help to further establish their credibility and demonstrate their effectiveness; just as more evaluation would assist in enhancing their current practices and methodologies. Research "proves" how and why adventure works; while evaluation improves the way programming works. More research and evaluation are needed to provide evidence that adventure programming is more than just fun and games, and to support it as the powerful form of change that practitioners tacitly know it to be.

CONCLUSION
The key to managing these trends and issues (to countering the negatives and to optimizing the positives) lies in the availability of a grassroots cadre of effective outdoor leaders. If our profession can't develop these leaders in the next decade, then we should expect to become more regulated, more legislated, more burned-out, more litigated, and less effective in our work. We can prepare now (an ounce of prevention) or pay later (a pound of cure).